A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
